Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections

Projected changes in precipitation extremes and their uncertainties are evaluated using an ensemble of global climate models from phase 6 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). They scaled by corresponding either mean surface temperature (ΔGSAT) or local (ΔT) expressed terms 20-yr return values (RV20) annual maximum one-day precipitation. Our main objective is to quantify model response uncertainty highlight regions where may not be consistent with widely used assumption a Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate ≈7%/K. When single realization for each model, as latest report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), assessed inter-model spread includes both internal variability, which can however separately large ensemble. Despite overestimated spread, our results show robust enhancement extreme more than 90% simulating increase RV20. Moreover, this CC ≈7%/K over about 83% land domain when (ΔGSAT). also advocate producing multiple initial condition ensembles next CMIP projections, better filter variability out estimating events.